Basic price performance of the precious metals market simply does not match that of other bull markets. Yes silver did rise from about $4.00 to about $50.00 but that is not nearly as impressive as it first sounds. When we compare the price appreciation in the current bull market to other bull markets we can clearly see that there is a lot of room for further upside. The following chart illustrates other examples of bull market price performance.

Next, given the quantity of money we have seen printed around the world, we would expect to see even more of an extreme price move than what we have seen. It is true that the price of nearly all commodities has risen significantly, but the metals have barely budged in comparison to the quantity of currency being printed.

When we consider the underperformance of precious metals mining companies relative to the metals themselves we certainly do not see signs of a “feeding frenzy mania”. Contrary to typical action in a bubble market, the mining equities have been dismally underperforming the metals as they wait for their turn to grow in value, like Cisco Systems or Microsoft did in 1999.

In the above chart when the blue line heads up silver is outperforming mining stocks and when the blue line heads down mining stocks are outperforming silver. Looking back as far as 1984 we can see how cheap mining equities are relative to the price of silver. At some point this trend will reverse.

In our opinion the bull market in precious metals is far from over, which makes the mining equities very attractive when compared to the metal itself.

Why do we want to hear others talk about the bull market being over?

We know that the best buying opportunities come when investors feel negative and very pessimistic, because if investors are pessimistic they are not investing, and if they are not investing the market is cheap. When everyone is excited and jumping in with both feet, wet think a wise investor should be cautious and take money out of the market. It is our expectation that a great buying opportunity in precious metals is marked with commentary about the end of a bull market. In our view it is positive news to read stories about the end of the precious metals bull market.

Finally, we have a set of custom indicators that suggest to us that the bull market in precious metals is alive and well. We were expecting this latest correction and we continue to monitor its progress

Be sure and visit our website for all your sterling silver needs – http://estate-sterling.com. We specialize in French antique sterling silver flatware and tableware prices.  We pride ourselves on being able to offer you the highest quality at the best prices.  We carry all major French brands – Christofle, Puiforcat, Odiot, Henin, etc.   Sterling silver flatware and table ware is a very wise and practical way to invest in silver.  You enjoy all the upside potential, with none of the downside risk.

Serves 8

This hands-on French feast of vegetables and cuts of meat boiled in a savory broth is traditionally served in courses. It begins with the bone marrow on toast, then follows with the broth and the meats and vegetables. Feel free to serve it all at once, providing plenty of toasted bread and savory condiments for dipping.

Brine:  

• 1/2 cup kosher salt
• 1/4 cup sugar
• 1 head of garlic, halved crosswise
• 1 teaspoon whole black peppercorns
• 2 fresh bay leaves (or 1 dried)
• 2 pound beef brisket
• 3 4″ pieces bone-in beef short ribs

Bouquet Garni, Meats, and Vegetables: 

• 1 head of garlic, halved crosswise
• 10 sprigs flat-leaf parsley
• 10 sprigs thyme
• 3 fresh bay leaves (or 1 dried)
• 3 whole cloves
• 1 teaspoon whole black peppercorns
• 3 2″–3″ long marrow bones
• 2 pounds oxtails
• 2 pounds beef bones
• 1 pound veal bones
• 1 pound veal breast
• 5 large carrots (about 1 pound), peeled (2 chopped, 3 cut into 2″ pieces)
• 2 celery stalks, chopped
• 1 onion, quartered
• 1 1-pound piece garlic sausage
• 2 rutabagas (about 1 pound), peeled, cut into wedges
• 1 small head of savoy cabbage (about 1 pound), halved
• 1 pound baby potatoes

Sauces and Garnishes:

• 1/2 cup extra-virgin olive oil
• 1/4 cup finely chopped flat-leaf parsley
• 1/4 cup finely chopped fresh chives
• 1/4 cup finely chopped fresh tarragon
• 2 garlic cloves, minced
• Kosher salt and freshly ground black pepper
• 1/4 cup crème fraîche
• 2 tablespoons prepared white horseradish, drained
• Whole grain mustard
• Dijon mustard
• Toasted sliced country bread

Special Equipment:  Cheesecloth

Preparation: 

For Brine:  Bring first 5 ingredients and 8 cups water to a simmer in a medium saucepan over medium heat, stirring until sugar and salt dissolve. Remove from heat; let cool to room temperature. Place brisket and short ribs in a large baking dish. Pour brine over to cover completely. Cover and chill for at least 8 hours or overnight. Remove meat; rinse and set aside.

For Bouquet Garni, Meats, and Vegetables: Place first 6 ingredients in center of a triple layer of cheesecloth. Gather up edges; tie with kitchen twine to form a bundle for bouquet garni. Wrap marrow bones in cheesecloth; tie into a bundle with twine. If desired, tie oxtails with twine around circumference to keep meat from falling off bones.

Place brisket, short ribs, bouquet garni, marrow bones, oxtails, beef bones, veal bones, veal breast, 2 chopped carrots, celery, and onion in a very large heavy pot. Add water to cover meat (about 7 quarts). Bring to a boil, skimming off any scum and fat that rise to the surface. Reduce heat and simmer, skimming occasionally, until short ribs are tender, 2–2 1/2 hours.

Transfer short ribs to a 13x9x2″ baking dish; add 4 cups broth from pot and tent with foil to keep meat warm and moist. Add sausage to pot; continue simmering until sausage is cooked through and remaining meats are tender, about 30 minutes longer. Transfer sausage, brisket, oxtails, and marrow bones to dish with short ribs.

Place a large strainer over another large pot; strain broth, discarding remaining meats, bones, and other solids in strainer. (You should have about 10 cups broth.) Return broth to a boil; add rutabagas, cabbage, potatoes, and 2″ pieces of carrots. Simmer until vegetables are tender but not mushy, about 30 minutes.

For Sauces and Garnishes: Mix first 5 ingredients in a small bowl to make salsa verde. Season with salt and pepper; set aside. Stir crème fraîche and horseradish in another small bowl; season with salt.

Transfer vegetables to a platter. Thinly slice brisket against the grain; cut sausage into 2″ pieces. Return meats to baking dish.

Season broth in pot to taste with salt and pepper; divide among bowls. (Reserve broth from meats for another use.) Serve meats and vegetables with salsa verde, horseradish crème fraîche, and both mustards in small bowls alongside. Serve with toasted country bread.

Bon Appétit

1. Ziti with Poblanos and Chipotle Saurce

Serves 6 to 8 (Main Course); Active Time – 25 min; Start to Finish – 45 min.

If the famed Italian-American noodle took a trip to the Southwest, it might come back looking a little like this. With a creamy sauce and a duo of chiles that adds smoke and spice, this pasta is packed with flavor.

Ingredients:

1 large onion, thinly sliced (2 1/4 cups)
1/2 lb fresh poblano chiles, stemmed, seeded, and thinly sliced lengthwise
2 tablespoons olive oil
1 cup chopped bottled roasted red peppers
1 lb ziti or penne
1 tablespoon chopped canned chipotles in adobo
1 1/2 cups sour cream
1 cup chopped scallions (about 1 bunch)
1/4 cup chopped cilantro

Garnish: raw green (hulled) pumpkin seeds (pepitas), toasted

Preparation:

• Cook onion, poblanos, and 1/2 tsp salt in oil in a heavy medium pot over medium heat, covered, stirring occasionally, until onion is golden, 8 to 10 minutes. Add red peppers and cook, stirring occasionally, until onion is tender, 2 to 3 minutes.
• Meanwhile, cook ziti in a pasta pot of boiling salted water (2 Tbsp salt for 6 qt water) until al dente. Reserve 1 cup cooking water, then drain ziti.
• Add purée to onion mixture with scallions, cilantro, 1/4 cup cooking water, and 1/2 tsp salt and bring to a simmer, stirring. Add ziti and toss, moistening with additional cooking water if desired. Season with salt.
• While ziti cooks, purée chipotles with sour cream in a blender.

Silver prices have been boosted by investment and industrial demand this year, the Silver Institute has reported. They say that this is contributing to a “strong silver price over the course of this year”.

Sturdy investment demand has pushed the silver price up 20% in the first ten weeks of 2012, outperforming platinum, palladium and gold during the period.

Silver 1 Year – (Bloomberg)

Investors are increasingly acquiring silver in many forms. Globally, silver-based exchange-traded-funds (ETFs) account for 586 million ounces (Moz.) of silver, up from 576 Moz. at the end of 2011. Demand for physical silver bars and antique sterling silver flatware and tableware products is also strong.

The Silver Institute reports that precious metals dealers are seeing brisk silver bar sales continue.

Moreover, investor demand on Comex (a division of the CME Group) has been strong this year.

As of Feb. 28, net long silver positions, which are the difference between total long positions and total short positions, had increased by more than two-fold from end-2011. If investors are net long they are bullish on prices and expect further price strength. Total net long positions on Feb. 28 were at their highest level since Sept. 13, 2011.

Also contributing to a strong silver price over the course of this year will be strengthening global silver industrial demand after a record 2011.

According to The Future of Silver Industrial Demand, a report commissioned by the Silver Institute and released last March, silver industrial demand is forecast to grow by 36% to 666 Moz. from 2010 through 2015.

Silver industrial demand remains positive primarily because of the lack of substitution and the very wide range of established and ever growing new uses of silver that are critical to industry.

Silver remains very undervalued from a historical perspective and the nominal high near $50/oz from 1980 and again in April 2011 remains a viable price target in 2012. Longer term, the inflation adjusted high of $150/oz remains viable.

Silver deserves an allocation in a portfolio or as a way of diversifying savings and should be owned in order to protect from systemic, macroeconomic, geopolitical and the monetary risk of currency devaluation. Buying French antique sterling silver flatware and tableware products (95% pure silver) is a very valid and practical way of investing in this bullish silver market. Protect you wealth and enjoy your investment.

Check our website (http://estate-sterling.com) for a full range of high quality sterling silver products.

……Doc.

In 2011, our list was selected from more than 16,000 new releases our editors rated in our independent blind tastings. More than 5,400 of these wines earned outstanding or classic ratings (90 points or higher on Wine Spectator’s 100-point scale). We narrowed the list down based on four criteria: quality (represented by score); value (reflected by release price); availability (measured by cases made or imported); and what we call the “X-factor”–the excitement generated by a rising-star producer, a benchmark wine or a significant milestone for a wine region. But no equation determines the final selections: These choices reflect our editors’ judgment and passion about the wines we tasted.

In this year’s list, 12 countries are represented, and quality remains high, with an average score of 93 points. The average price per bottle dipped from last year from $48 to $44, compared with a $70 average for 90-point wines reviewed this year. We hope that you enjoy this list of exciting values, emerging stars and time-honored stalwarts and that our Top 100 of 2011 leads you to more deeply explore the world of wine.

Kosta Browne
Pinot Noir Sonoma Coast 2009

95 points / $52
5,818 cases made
Sonoma County, California

Central to the story of Pinot Noir’s steady rise in California has been the improbable ascent of a small Sonoma winery, started more than a decade ago by two waiters who pooled their tips so they could make wine.

With no formal winemaking training, Dan Kosta and Michael Browne stumbled along a path of trial and error. Their first Pinots weren’t inspiring, but since 2002, they’ve made 66 wines that have earned 90 points or higher—though they don’t own a single vine and make wine in a rented warehouse. In 2009, the greatest vintage yet for California Pinot, the team—which now has the financial backing of Vincraft—made 11 outstanding Pinots, including our Wine of the Year for 2011.

The Sonoma Coast bottling showcases Browne’s meticulous winemaking and the quality of their grape sources. Making a few hundred cases of great Pinot is hard enough; making nearly 6,000 cases is an admirable accomplishment. The 2009 comprises fruit from three vineyards—Gap’s Crown, Terra de Promissio, and a new site, Walala Vineyard—and spent about a year in new oak. • VIDEO of #1

Domaine Huët
Vouvray Moelleux Clos du Bourg Première Trie 2009

96 points / $69
760 cases made
Loire Valley, France

The nearly 15-acre Clos du Bourg vineyard features a mix of clay, silt and pebbles over limestone subsoils, producing this Loire Valley domaine’s richest expression of Chenin Blanc. If weather permits, as it did in 2009, beneficial Botrytis cinerea (noble rot) dehydrates the late-ripening grapes, whose fresh acidity counterbalances the resulting sweet wine’s concentrated fruit and spice notes. This Première Trie represents Huët winemaker Noël Pinguet’s top selection of hand-harvested grapes. VIDEO of #3

Campogiovanni
Brunello di Montalcino 2006

96 points / $50
7,000 cases made
Tuscany, Italy

The 50-acre Campogiovanni estate in Montalcino was acquired in the early 1980s by Chianti producer Agricola San Felice. About 30 acres of vines, the oldest of them planted in the mid-1960s, are used for its Brunello. Winemaker Leonardo Bellaccini replanted other parcels in 1982, 1988 and 1997, using both selection and clones. This red, aged three years in large, Slavonian oak barrels and one year in bottle, benefited from the excellent 2006 vintage.  VIDEO of #4

Dehlinger
Pinot Noir Russian River Valley 2008

95 points / $50
1,050 cases made
Sonoma County, California

Tom Dehlinger was one of the early true believers in Pinot Noir from the Russian River Valley. The family’s 45-acre vineyard is on a ridge of red gravelly soil 13 miles inland from the coast. From the start, the emphasis has been on small amounts of hand-worked, barrel-aged wines made with the aim of extracting, developing and preserving maximum flavor from the grapes. This rich, layered 2008, from estate fruit, made a challenging vintage look easy. VIDEO of #5

Baer
Ursa Columbia Valley 2008

95 points / $35
1,095 cases made
Washington

Winemaker Lance Baer founded Baer Winery in 2000, producing his wines in Woodinville, Wash., using grapes from Columbia Valley vineyards. After his death in 2007, his sister Lisa and his father, Les, took the reins and hired consulting winemaker Erica Orr. Baer’s signature wine, Ursa, Latin for “bear,” has always been impressive for its suppleness and pure flavors. The 2008, a blend that focuses on Merlot and Cabernet Franc, is the winery’s best wine yet.  VIDEO of #6

Quinta do Vallado
Touriga Nacional Douro 2008

95 points / $55
2,188 cases made
Douro Valley, Portugal

The Ferreira family, once best-known for Port, branched out to table wine in 1995 at this estate overlooking the river Corgo. (They later sold the Port house.) Vallado’s team includes cousins João Ribeiro, Francisco Ferreira and consulting winemaker Francisco Olazabal, who also works at his family’s Quinta do Vale Meão. Rather than a blend of grapes, this wine is a rare single-variety Touriga Nacional, a tricky grape to fully ripen. But the 2008 is dark and concentrated, with finesse.  VIDEO of #7

Domenico Clerico
Barolo Ciabot Mentin Ginestra 2006

96 points / $90
1,500 cases made
Piedmont, Italy

This Barolo comes from 13.5 acres in the Ginestra cru of Monforte d’Alba, the southernmost commune of the Barolo zone. Owner Domenico Clerico took over the business from his father, who sold his grapes directly to the local cooperative, in 1976. Clerico purchased the Ginestra parcels in 1981; the first vintage of this wine was 1982. Since its debut, Ciabot Mentin Ginestra has consistently been one of the Barolo appellation’s finer bottlings.   VIDEO of #8

Alain Graillot
Crozes-Hermitage La Guiraude 2009

94 points / $55
650 cases made
Northern Rhône, France

A selection of Graillot’s best lots and bottled in exceptional vintages only, La Guiraude is 100 percent Syrah from vines planted on alluvial soils in the heart of the Crozes plateau. The warm, dry 2009 growing season produced an early harvest of ripe grapes balanced with fresh acidity. Second-generation winemaker Maxime Graillot fermented with stems and aged the wine 80 percent in used oak and 20 percent in vat for one year, to add complexity and structure without masking the fruit.  VIDEO of #9

Château de St.-Cosme
Gigondas Valbelle 2009

94 points / $58
1,175 cases made
Southern Rhône, France

In 2009, proprietor Louis Barruol cofermented Grenache with 10 percent Syrah in cement vats before aging this wine in a range of used barrels. The fruit is sourced from 80-year-old vines in five vineyards. The 2009 vintage began with a devastating spring hailstorm that reduced buds and, ultimately, yields, by 50 percent. Hot, dry weather followed, and the remaining grapes ripened fully with additional concentration and tannins. As a result, the wine delivers noticeable power and structure, ideal for cellaring. VIDEO of #10

Wine Spectator’s Complete List of Top 100 Wines for 2011

The best advice for  investors for 2012 is: If you don’t own any silver, get some.  Even if you don’t buy silver bullion or silver coins, at least buy some antique sterling silver items, which are 95% pure silver and present a wise, practical way to take advantage of the huge price increase in silver expected in 2012. Already, the price of silver has increased 20% this year and its only March.

The situation is simple. Demand is soaring. Supply is not keeping up. The supply/demand gap has pushed silver prices steadily higher over the last decade. About 10 years ago silver sat around $5 an ounce. Now silver has recently hit a high of $50 per ounce in 2011. Although silver has since corrected, the supply/demand imbalance is only getting worse. And 2012 is shaping up to be the year silver resumes its uptrend and sets new all-time highs again. The fundamentals of silver could justify a price as high as $200 an ounce.

Sound crazy? Well, $10, $20, and $30 silver all sounded a bit far-fetched too and have all come and gone. Here’s what you need to know about the quickly unfolding opportunity in silver now.

Something Has to Give: Silver Supply and Demand

All commodity prices are driven by supply and demand. Prices go up when demand is outstripping supply and vice versa. Silver is no different. In the last few years, silver demand has exploded because it’s a unique commodity. Silver has both monetary value as precious metal (much like gold) and industrial value (it’s used in all sorts of industries from chemicals to healthcare). As a result, silver demand can, have, and will continue to rise in the years ahead. Just look at the recent trends in supply and demand and see for yourself.

Demand:

Silver demand has soared across almost every sector of consumption. Specifically, industrial demand for silver has steadily risen over the last few years. A GFMS study prepared for the Silver Institute found leading industrial silver demand is on the rise across all its top-consuming:

• Electrical and electronics – 242.9 million ounces (an all-time high)
• Solar Power – 70 million ounces (up 40%)
• Automobiles – 36 million ounces

These are massive growth numbers. But they pale in comparison to the surging demand that will push silver prices to currently unthinkable levels. Investment demand for silver is soaking up all available supply and more. Consider this. HSBC is the world’s largest bullion dealer. It’s on the front lines of supply and demand. And it sees massive levels of rising silver demand for investment purposes. It says demand for silver as an investment is surging, especially from emerging economies. The bank says that “explosive” growth is coming from the world’s fastest growing economies.
The facts bear this trend out. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) has reported it sold 418,000 ounces of silver to Chinese invest citizens in January. Compare that to ICBC previous sales. The bank sold 1.06 million ounces in all of 2011. Silver demand in China alone is so strong, ICBC was on pace to sell as much silver in 10 weeks as it did the entire previous year.

In addition to China, India’s total silver consumption is soaring too. Indian silver consumption has increased between 70% and 80% in 2011. Silver demand is soaring. And it’s only going higher as industrial consumption rises and investor demand continues right along with it. The problem (and opportunity!) is that silver production isn’t growing nearly as fast.

Supply:

Silver’s run from $5 an ounce nearly a decade ago to a recent high of $50 has brought a lot more supply onto the market. Silver supplies from recycling, mine production, and other sources, however, have not grown nearly fast enough to keep up with demand.  And the undersupply is very consistent. For example, the global supply of silver increased a mere 0.2% between 2008 and 2009. The follow year silver supply only increased by a little more than seven percent. 2011 isn’t much better either. Total silver production growth remains to be in the single digits. The combination of rapidly growing demand and insufficient supply growth are creating an explosive opportunity that’s going to make silver’s next leg up a big one.

It’s simple supply and demand

Something has to give when demand so greatly outpaces supply. And that something will be silver prices.

The Best Silver Price Indicator Revealed 

The ever-widening silver supply and demand gap is going to push silver prices up. The question is how high can it push them? History is a great guide to see where silver prices are headed. One of the best indicators of how far silver prices can leap in the near-term is the gold/silver ratio.
Based on the number of ounces of silver an ounce of gold is worth, this ratio has stayed within a moderate range over the past 30 years. For example: In 1980, an ounce of gold was worth 14 ounces of silver. In 1990, an ounce of gold was worth just over 100 ounces of silver.

The real value of the ratio is that it can guide investors to buy gold and silver at far better prices than they would by following each metal individually. A recent snapshot of gold and silver prices (with gold at $1,700 and silver at $32 and the gold/silver ratio at 53.) is a great example. A gold/silver ratio of 53 is at the higher end of the scale. It’s simply saying silver is cheap relative to gold and silver has much more upside potential than gold.

If the ratio were to fall back to 14 as it was in 1980, silver would have to rise four times if gold did not go up at all. Of course, history is just a guide. There are many more reasons to expect silver to outperform gold in the months and years ahead…

A New Low Gold/Silver Ratio = Soaring Highs for Silver

Over the long run, the gold/silver ratio is going much, much lower. As a result, any rise in gold prices will be magnified even more so than the 4-to-1 example above. Again, the reason is simple: In time, there won’t be enough gold to go around… but there’s even less silver.

On the supply side, silver is not keeping up. Gold and silver mines are running at much different paces. For every ounce of gold produced, there are only nine ounces of silver (ratio: 9-to-1).  The U.S. Geological Survey reports there are only six ounces of known in-the-ground silver resources for every one ounce of gold in the ground (ratio: 6-to-1). The CPM Group reports the total silver available in the world only is only five times larger than the number of ounces of gold (ratio: 5-to-1).  Meanwhile, demand is far outpacing those supplies. Investment demand for silver has been making up an ever-increasing part of the precious metals investment pie. We noted ETF Securities reported $7.2 billion of investment went into gold last quarter earlier. They also found $1.4 billion of that was into silver (ratio: 3-to-1).

Clearly, over the long run, the gold/silver ratio is going lower. The fundamentals are in place to push silver prices up regardless of where gold prices go. But if gold prices continue higher (as we expect them to do) silver prices can and will explode.

How High Can Silver Go?

A quick extrapolation of the gold/silver ratio can give us a great idea of where silver prices are headed in 2012 and beyond:

The potential upside in silver prices is astounding. We’re looking at $50, $100, and as high as $200 in the years ahead. Imagine what will happen the price of sterling silver flatware and tableware when that happens.  Their prices will also explode upwards.  Even in the “bad case” scenario – where gold prices fall back to $1500 an ounce – there’s still tremendous upside potential in silver prices.
That’s why silver is such a great investment right now. But, to be perfectly clear, it gets even better.  And it’s all because of an attribute unique to gold and silver most investors never understand.

Precious Metals Paradox

We’re still in the early stages of a precious metals bull market. Gold and silver will go through the occasional correction; however, it will be nothing more than that.

The reason? The big money investors haven’t bought hardly any gold at all. Pension funds, mutual funds, sovereign wealth funds, endowment funds, and other big money players which manage trillions of dollars have not bought any gold at all. This chart from the World Gold Council shows gold makes up a mere one percent of total global financial assets:

This is good for gold and great for silver. But there’s more. The attribute unique to both gold and silver is that the big prices jumps will be driven by investor euphoria. This creates an investing paradox where the higher the price of something goes, the more investors want it. Gold and silver are the perfect example. You know, coin and bullion dealers sell a lot more gold at $1,000 an ounce than they did at $300 an ounce… and they’ll sell even more at $2,000 an ounce, $3,000 an ounce, and beyond.

The same is true for silver.  Silver bullion sales set records each time silver passed $15, $20, $30, and $40 an ounce. The combination of rising demand and falling supply will push silver prices much higher. A historical analysis shows $200 silver is within reach as gold prices head higher. In many cases $100 is well within historical ranges. Either way you look at it, silver prices are going up. Way up.

Again, the best advice for 2012 is… If you don’t own any silver, get some. And even if you don’t buy silver bullion or silver coins, at least buy some antique sterling silver items, which are 95% pure silver. It is a wise, practical way to take advantage of the huge price increase in silver expected in 2012.  And you can admire and enjoy your investment on a daily basis.  Already, the price of silver has increased 20% this year and its only March.Good investing,

Be sure and check our website (http://estate-sterling.com) for our latest products.  We offer highest quality antique French sterling silver flatware and tableware products  at the best prices – GUARANTEED !!  And if you are looking for something in particular and don’t see it on our website, contact us.  Not all our products are listing on our website….Doc.

I have found there is a great deal of misinformation on the internet when it comes to silver. It is ironic that one of the so-called “bullion specialists” seems to give bearish commentaries whenever the price of gold or silver rises to new highs. This is akin to a CEO of a corporation telling the media and shareholders that the company’s stock price is too high and needs to drop down to more sustainable levels. What CEO on Earth would say something as stupid as this with the best interest of the company and shareholders in mind? Furthermore, how many CEOs would keep their job if they repeated this over and over for the past several years, and got it wrong time and time again?

Unless you have been in the precious metals markets for quite some time, it is easy to be misled by this type of information. This is the very reason behind the motivation that I had to post this article. It attempts to give the reader-investor a more detailed and fundamental comparative analysis of the future price of silver, rather than the typical fly-by-night technical charting or bull-bear rant. This should give a more commonsense methodology in forecasting the future path of silver and its eventual paradigm shift.

Paradigm Shift: —n, a radical change in underlying beliefs or theory

The coming paradigm shift in silver will not happen due to technical analysis, fundamentals, or supply & demand forces, but rather due to a change in mass psychology of investors. Even though fundamentals and supply-demand forces will play a part in this shift, they will not be the ultimate cause. I believe technical analysis as it is used today, only charts the amount of manipulation and mass psychology in the silver market.

Throughout history, a paradigm shift occurs in rigged markets when the manipulation of the financial system and economy is no longer sustainable. This occurred in the banking and housing markets in 2007-2008 when we had what I call a “Negative Paradigm Price Shift”— a trend where prices or values are declining.

Negative Paradigm Price Shift in Housing and Banking

Prior to 2007, the real estate market was kept alive by the work of clowns and magicians in the mortgage industry and banking system. For several years everyone was having a great time. As housing prices and sales continued towards the heavens, bank profits hit all-time records. Everything was going along just fine until the market realized one day that there was nothing left after “Liars Loans” were levied to keep the Ponzi going. Once the housing market collapsed, so too did the banking system. Like two twins attached at birth, one could not live without the other.

In true waterfall fashion, investment banks, commercial banks, government-sponsored entities and insurance companies went bankrupt, were either taken over or became a mere shadow of their former selves.

Here we can see several examples of a Negative Paradigm Shift:

As you can see from these 10-year charts, the prices of these stocks were range bound prior to 2007. All of a sudden, in the middle of 2007, the bottom fell out and the prices of these stocks suffered exponential losses. Other examples of companies that have experienced similar Negative Paradigm Shifts include Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns, Merrill Lynch, Washington Mutual and Freddie Mac.

How could all of these institutions collapse in this fashion? It was due to policy deregulation as well as the manipulation of financial products, assets and information. Thus, the banking system and these institutions were functioning and supposedly solvent a great deal longer than a free market would have allowed. The act of misleading the market gave false values and elevated stock prices.

This is a perfect example of the mass psychology of the public investing in highly inflated assets based on superficial and bogus technical analysis. As the housing and financial markets were reaching their peak in the 2007, fundamentals played no part in their real market values— it was based entirely on mass psychology instead; the false belief projected by investors and the corporations themselves that these companies were actually of high value.

This disintegration of the housing market and banking system was not an isolated episode; rather it was part of the events that take place in STAGE 1 of what Dmitry Orlov calls the Five Stages of Collapse:

• Stage 1: Financial Collapse
• Stage 2: Commercial Collapse
• Stage 3: Political Collapse
• Stage 4: Social Collapse
• Stage 5: Cultural Collapse

According to Orlov:

STAGE 1: Financial collapse. Faith in “business as usual” is lost. The future is no longer assumed to resemble the past in any way that allows risk to be assessed and financial assets to be guaranteed. Financial institutions become insolvent; savings are wiped out, and access to capital is lost.

Here we can see that the majority of these conditions in the Financial Collapse have already taken place. The only reason why the U.S. banking system is still functioning today is due to the ability of banks to mark to model their assets giving the impression that they are still solvent. Furthermore, the increased guarantee of FDIC deposit accounts to $250,000 as well as a temporary unlimited coverage for noninterest-bearing transaction accounts until Dec 31, 2012 have kept a major bank run from happening on the banking system. These changes of policy have postponed the United States from entering into STAGE 2 or the Commercial Collapse. This will be discussed at the latter part of the article.

If this wasn’t bad enough, the current U.S. banking system is based on a fractional reserve requirement of 10% in fiat money; basically paper backing paper. This wasn’t always the case. To get a better idea of how disastrous the present banking system has become, we need to take a look at fractional reserve requirements of the past.

From an Historic Gold-Backed Fractional Reserve System to a Paper Farce Today

Eric Sprott made a recent comment posted in an article on Zerohedge.com, stating that“The financial system is a farce” . He couldn’t be more correct in his assumption. Not only is the present U.S. banking system based on a financial debt instrument called a Federal Reserve Note, but its fractional reserve ratio is virtually nonexistent.

In 1932, the United States had a fractional reserve banking system backed by gold. The member banks had different reserve requirements: central reserve city banks (13 percent), reserve banks (10 percent) and country banks (7 percent). All member banks had a 3 percent reserve requirement on time deposits. Even with these official reserve ratios, the total paper dollar claims to gold were much higher. For this analysis, we are going to compare the M2 money supply to the amount of U.S. Treasury-held gold.

In 1932, the U.S. Treasury held $2.95 billion in gold, there was $5.60 billion in currency in circulation, $36 billion in M2 money supply, and $19 billion in U.S. Treasury debt. The fractional reserve of gold to the M2 money supply was 8.3%.

Despite the terrible conditions during the “Great Depression”, at least the country had two positive factors going for it: 1) A banking system backed by gold and 2) vast resources of energy, metals and minerals to tap into to pull itself out of its current market ills.

Today, the banking system is on the verge of collapse and the country has consumed its best resources which peaked 40-50 years ago. After Nixon dropped the dollar peg to gold in 1971, the world has been on a floating exchange rate fiat monetary system. The present fractional reserve banking system we have today is based on a fiat paper reserve.

This graph shows that no gold whatsoever is backing up the banking system. As the U.S. banking system stands today, its currency— the Federal Reserve Note— is backed by $15.2 trillion worth of U.S. Treasury debt. The system is even weaker when we look into the makeup of the banks’ fractional reserve ratio.

For starters, the official 10% minimum reserve requirement set by the Board of Governors at the Federal Reserve applies to mainly checking accounts. Effective December 27, 1990, CD’s, savings accounts, and timed deposits owned by entities other than households were not included in this 10% reserve requirement. Additionally, in 1994 the Federal Reserve Board passed a “Deposit Reclassification” for financial institutions to help lower reserve requirements even further. Eric DeCarbonnel explains this in his article “US Banks Operating without Reserve Requirements”:

Deposit reclassification is an accounting trick, used by virtually the entire financial sector, which allows banks to eliminate nearly all their reserve requirements. Deposit Reclassification splits a checking account into two separate subaccounts, a transaction (checking) subaccount and a non-transaction (savings) subaccount. This distinction only exists on the bank’s books: you will never see these subaccounts on your bank statements.

Deposit reclassification means that, at any point in time, most of the money in American checking accounts sits in invisible savings subaccounts. These savings subaccounts pay no interest, but allow banks to avoid reserve requirements. The public is completely unaware of this financial engineering.

It is now apparent that the so-called official 10% fractional reserve ratio of the U.S. banking system is just a mere figure to delude the public into believing it has a working cash reserve ratio, whereas in reality, the system is a complete farce.

The public has no clue just how weak and vulnerable the U.S. banking system has become. At one time, the United States had a fractional reserve banking system backed by physical gold money. Today, its financial system is entirely based on a fiat monetary regime with practically no fractional reserve ratio whatsoever.

Gold & Silver Money Contain Intrinsic Value; Federal Reserve Notes Have None

Not only is the majority of the public ignorant to the amount of dangerous leverage in the U.S. banking system, most have no understanding of real money. I have had several debates on various websites with highly educated individuals on the subject. Some have replied by stating, “The U.S. Dollar is backed by the GDP of the country”, while others have insisted that, “Gold & silver have no intrinsic value whatsoever.” It is no wonder this country is heading full speed over the cliff.

In historic times, the value of gold and silver was tied to their rarity as well as the amount of labor needed in extracting and producing the metals. As time went by, capital became a larger percentage of this value while human labor was replaced by energy-consuming machinery. Each gold and silver coin produced today contains a certain amount of this capital investment, energy and labor cost. Thus, these precious metal coins do hold a certain amount of intrinsic value.

On the other hand, a Federal Reserve Note today has no intrinsic value at all— except for its printing cost. It is only a PROMISE TO PAY. The Federal Reserve Note is not redeemable by gold, but Uncle Sam will give you some of its $15.2 Trillion of U.S. Treasury debt in exchange. It is due to this very reason why we see an increasing amount of Americans buying Gold and Silver bullion as well as gold jewelry and sterling silver flatware and tableware products.

The U.S. Mint does not provide the public with annual records of exact dollar sales of their Gold and Silver Eagles. To get the figures below, the annual sales of silver and gold eagles were multiplied by their respective average yearly price reported by Kitco.com.

In times of worry in the financial system, the public regains confidence through buying gold and silver assets. During the Y2K scare, we can see that Americans were putting a great deal more money in Gold Eagles over Silver Eagles. In 1999 the public was buying 12 times the amount of money in gold than silver. Today, we see that investors are spending almost the same amount of money in both precious metals.

The graph above only reveals part of the story. According to kitco.com, the average price of silver in 2011 was $35.11 and the average price of gold was $1571.52. This gives us a gold-silver ratio in 2011 of 45 to 1. If we look at the next graph below we can see just how much more Silver Eagles over Gold Eagles the public is buying.

It is hard to tell from the graph above, but Gold Eagle sales have increased tremendously since 2007. Here are the exact figures for both:

During the Y2K scare in 1999, Americans bought a record 2 million ounces of Gold Eagles and only 9 million ounces of Silver Eagles. This was at ratio of 4.4 to 1. In 2011, the ratio increased nearly 10 times as investors bought almost 40 million Silver Eagles while only purchasing 1 million in Gold Eagle ounces.

Very few individuals have comprehended the amazing trend taking place in the Gold and Silver Eagle’s market. In 1999, Gold Eagle sales hit a record of 2 million ounces. Last year, investors only bought half that amount. However, Silver Eagle sales have increased more than fourfold from nine million oz in 1999 to nearly 40 million ounces in 2011.

Even though these two graphs give overwhelming evidence on how much more investors are buying Silver Eagles over Gold Eagles, it is only part of the story.

Comparing U.S. Domestic Gold-Silver Production vs. Gold-Silver Sales

The  article, First Time Ever, Silver Sales Surpass Domestic Production,  explains how Silver Eagle sales are forecasted to be higher than the total 2011 U.S. domestic silver production output (full data on U.S. silver mine production will not be out until April-May of 2012). This is a graph from the article that shows Silver Eagle sales will be approximately 5 million oz greater than U.S. domestic silver production:

While it is true that the U.S. imports silver to meet its industrial and investment demands, this amount was two and a half times its 2010 mine production. According to the USGS 2011 Silver Mineral Summary, the United States had a net import of 3,240 metric tons of silver in 2010. Compare that to its mine production of only 1,280 metric tonnes the very same year.

On the other hand, if we look at the USGS 2011 Gold Mineral Summary, the United States had a net import of 160 metric tonnes of gold in 2010 while its domestic mine production was 230 metric tonnes. Here we can see that the U.S. gold mines produce one and a half times more gold than it imports from foreign sources.

In 2011, the United States is estimated to produce roughly 7.5 million oz of gold (233 metric tonnes) along with one million oz of Gold Eagle Sales:

Looking at these two graphs the difference becomes extremely obvious. Silver Eagle sales consumed 114% of U.S. domestic silver production in 2011, whereas Gold Eagle sales accounted for only 13.5% of domestic gold production.

The public is beginning to understand that silver offers a much more affordable way to protect one’s wealth than gold. This realization has now taken a bigger bite out of the U.S. domestic silver production pie than is available. Even though the United States can import silver presently to supply its investment and industrial demand, this situation will change when the U.S. economy enters into STAGE 2 of the collapse.

When Will the Paradigm Shift in Silver Occur?

For the most part, Americans are completely oblivious of just how close the country is to a total disintegration of its fiat monetary system. As was mentioned in the beginning of the article, the United States financial system died in 2008. It has been kept alive by policy deregulation, monetary printing, and market manipulation (including derivative manufacturing such as interest rate swaps). These collaborative short term machinations have a lifespan that is diminishing every passing day, while investors who have made the wise decision to exchange fiat money for gold and silver keep wondering how long this manipulation can continue.

I remember watching Peter Schiff on CNBC and Fox Business between the years of 2005-2007 debating about the upcoming collapse of the mortgage and housing markets. On several occasions, Schiff was the laughing stock on the set as anchors and other guests thought he was simply crazy in his forecasts. By 2008, the laughs had stopped while the country watched as the U.S. housing values began their rapid decline that would eventually surpass the disastrous records set during the 1930’s Great Depression.

The answer for  individuals and investors who ask  the question “when will the manipulation end?” is that it will end when the U.S. enters into STAGE 2 or the Commercial Collapse.

Again, according to Orlov:

Stage 2: Commercial collapse. Faith that “the market shall provide” is lost. Money is devalued and/or becomes scarce, commodities are hoarded, import and retail chains break down, and widespread shortages of survival necessities become the norm.

Despite the forecasts of many analysts of what the U.S. Dollar index or government deficits will look like in the next decade, the U.S. economy will enter into STAGE 2 more likely than not in the next few years. The commercial collapse as described by Orlov is when the whole country will feel the impact of the ongoing economic disintegration.

This article is long enough and does not have time to go into the three other stages of collapse described by Orlov. It is recommended that the reader  get additional information on the five stages of collapse.

Briefly, Orlov witnessed firsthand the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1989 and then wrote a book titled Reinventing Collapse: The Soviet Example and American Prospects describing these different stages. According to Orlov, a country does not have to systematically go through all five stages of collapse. But when the financial collapse occurs, the commercial collapse is sure to follow. With all things considered, Orlov believes the overall conditions are far worse in the United States today than they were for the U.S.S.R in 1989.

Currently, an overwhelming majority of the public has not learned its lesson since the collapse of the banking and housing markets in 2008, as they are still heavily invested in the U.S. Treasury and retirement markets. They still cling onto the belief that their paper investment wealth will be safe and provide for them well into the future. The graph below compares the amount of precious metal investment to the total amount of money held in U.S. retirement assets.

Since the American Eagle program started in 1986, there has been roughly $13.4 billion worth of these gold and silver coins purchased. Currently, the total market value of the GLD & SLV ETF is $76 billion. Furthermore, if we assume a 1% ownership of precious metals by the investment community in the United States, taken from information provided by the CPM Gold Yearbook 2011 (based on 0.7% gold as a percent of global financial assets and adding an estimated 0.3% for silver), we would get a figure of approximately $170 billion in these assets.

The total value assigned to the GLD & SLV is given as a form of reference and not as a recommendation for investment purposes. All paper claims on gold and silver are not a guarantee of owning the actual physical metal. Some vehicles such as the PSLV and PHYS enable the investor to trade in shares for actual metal (under certain guidelines).

According to the Investment Company Institute’s third quarter news release in 2011, the total value of U.S. retirement assets was $17 trillion. The breakdown was as follows: $4.6 trillion in IRA’s, $4.3 trillion in defined benefit plans, $4.2 trillion in govt. pension plans, $2.3 trillion in private sector defined-benefit plans, and $1.6 trillion in annuities.

All retirement plans are based on a continued income stream from the market. There is really nothing backing these assets except the faith that the market will continue to grow and function providing the returns to pay its investors when they retire. However, the financial system already experienced its Negative Paradigm Shift in 2007-2008, rendering growth at its necessary rate to perpetually sustain an income stream under a fiat monetary system now impossible.

The graph above indicates the degree of mass psychology in the different investments. Presently, the overwhelming majority is invested in the $17 trillion retirement market. Unfortunately, these retirement assets will go the same way that the housing and financial markets did in 2008-2009. It is only a matter of time.

Gold has been called the “Barbarous Relic”, time and time again on CNBC and Fox Business. There is a certain amount of hubris and ego attached to our present financial house of cards— a paradigm that is coming to an end. Those who believe that gold is a barbarous relic are still drinking that barbarous water, or breathing that barbarous air, or eating that barbarous bread or still cleaning with that barbarous object called a broom. All these so-called barbarous items listed above haven’t changed much since the Roman and Medieval times.

The constant negative rhetoric of gold in the main stream media keeps the mass psychology of the public away from investing in the precious metals and into increasing worthless paper retirement assets.

The Coming Positive Paradigm Shift in Silver

As mentioned before, the paradigm shift in gold and silver will occur when the United States enters into Stage 2, the commercial collapse. This article focuses on silver due to the fact that the majority of gold that has ever been mined is still stashed away nicely in vaults across the world. However, due to silver’s dual role as an investment and industrial commodity, a large percentage of silver that has been mined has been consumed in industrial fabrication and lost forever— continuously diminishing its supply and raising its value.

When silver performs its paradigm shift, it will behave in the opposite fashion as the first three charts in this article. While AIG, Fannie Mae and Citigroup suffered negative paradigm price shifts, silver will be awarded a positive one. The graph below gives a possible REPRESENTATION OF THIS PARADIGM SHIFT. Repeat… a representation of this paradigm shift:

The $150 Free Market Price of silver was calculated by inputting the Jan. 1980 high price of silver into the inflation calculator at Shadowstats.com. I realize there will be a great deal of backlash on this $150 figure… so here is the rationale behind it:

1. This figure was based on the “official CPI statistics”. John Williams at Shadowstats.com has an alternative SGS calculation using older inflation parameters which would make the price much higher.
2. The manufacturing of trillions of dollars of derivatives has siphoned investment money away from physical assets such as silver, keeping their prices artificially low.
3. The overwhelming number of paper claims (100+ to 1) on every physical ounce of silver has also sucked investment money away from the physical metal, also depressing its actual price.

Even though the last two reasons above can overlap in definition, they were separated due to the type of derivatives experienced in the market. The second reason focuses on the tremendous amount of financial derivatives such as interest rate swaps and retirement accounts. The third deals with the silver derivatives themselves— options, futures, pool accounts, silver certificates and silver ETF’s. The possible paradigm price shift of silver shown above represents a trend when the mass psychology of the market becomes increasingly aware of the true fundamentals of physical assets such as silver. The higher the price goes, the more fundamentally aware the market becomes.

The fact of the matter is that the stocks of AIG, Fannie Mae and Citigroup were garbage and worthless well before 2007. If we were to look at their charts above and draw a straight line from where their current stock prices are today and go back all away across the chart to the year 2002, we would see a fair indication of a free market value.

Yet, the majority of investors today are still suffering from the same mass psychology that kept the financial and housing markets elevated several years ago. Today, the investor’s confidence is placed firmly in the U.S. Treasury and Retirement markets. These are the two final greatest bubbles in history.

The U.S. banking system has no real fractional reserve to speak of and its monetary unit called the Federal Reserve Note is backed by $15.2 trillion in U.S. Treasury debt. The global oil supply is peaking and there will not be the available cheap energy in the future to fuel the U.S. economy to be able to pay back these debts or fulfill the obligations of the current $17 trillion retirement market.

While, the U.S. Govt. and Wall Street may be able to postpone the inevitable for a while longer by printing more dollar digits, issuing more paper treasuries and manufacturing more derivatives, these are temporary solutions. There are other alternatives that the U.S. could opt to take, such as backing the dollar with gold or erasing all the debt and starting over. Unfortunately, these are not the choices that are being considered by the leaders in government.

The paradigm shift in silver shown above is a representation of a possible trend in the future. Anything can change its outcome in time and price. That being said, when global markets cannot avoid heading into an unavoidable negative exponential trajectory as they presently are, (including the U.S. economic system) changes in price or value move up or down quickly and violently.

A change in mass psychology will play a big part in the market realization of the true fundamental price of silver. Silver will outperform gold in percentage terms as it will be more affordable to the masses.

Lastly, to all the silver investors who are purchasing physical bullion or sterling silver flatware and tableware products, remain patient— the silver paradigm shift is coming and then watch silver prices skyrocket upwards. Be sure and check our website for our latest product offerings: http://estate-sterling.com.

This annual list, which debuted in 1988, reflects significant trends, spotlights successful regions and recognizes outstanding producers. In 2010, they reviewed more than 15,800 new releases from around the world in blind tastings. More than 3,900 of these wines earned outstanding or classic ratings (90 points or higher on their 100-point scale). they narrowed the list down based on four criteria: quality (represented by score); value (reflected by release price); availability (measured by cases made or imported); and an X-factor they call excitement. But no equation determines their final selections: These choices reflect their editors’ judgment and passion about the wines they have tasted.

The major trend in 2010 was an increase in expensive, limited-production wines at one end of the spectrum and in large-volume, value brands at the other. Looking for values, wine lovers sought out less-familiar regions and grape varieties. In their 2010 list, 14 countries are represented, and quality remains high, with an average score of 93 points. The average price per bottle is $48. We hope that you enjoy this list of exciting values, emerging stars and time-honored stalwarts and that these Top 100 of 2010 leads you to more deeply explore the world of wine.

Saxum - James Berry Vineyard Paso Robles 2007

98 points / $67
950 cases made, California

In 1998, when 28-year-old Justin Smith started making wine in Paso Robles, it was a sleepy Central Coast area. Now the wine region is one of California’s fastest-growing. West Paso has a magical combination of rocky limestone soils, rolling hillsides and a not-too-cool climate that gives red Rhône varieties a firm structure to frame their rich, dark berry flavors.

Smith, who owns the 3,000-case Saxum winery with his wife, Heather, creates wines of distinctive character, depth and personality. In 2007, a near-perfect vintage, Saxum’s wines reached new heights. The 2007 James Berry Vineyard Paso Robles is a blend of Grenache, Mourvèdre and Syrah from a vineyard named after Smith’s father. The three varieties are aged 20 months in new and used barriques and large puncheons, to emphasize fruit purity. With its classic quality and reasonable price, this wine is a testament that Paso Robles has earned its place on the world stage.

Two Hands - Shiraz Barossa Valley Bella’s Garden 2008

94 points / $55
2,400 cases made, Australia

Managing partner Michael Twelftree and winemaker Matt Wenk have found a winning formula with their Garden Series, an umbrella of six different Shiraz wines, each sourced from vineyards located in subappellations of South Australia. The Barossa bottling, Bella’s Garden, has reached the Top 100 a total of six times since its first release (the 2001 vintage). Wenk used 18 percent new French oak hogsheads, minimal fining and no filtration to produce this fresh-tasting, complex wine.

Peter Michael - Chardonnay Sonoma County Ma Belle-Fille 2008

97 points / $85
2,100 cases made, California

Ma Belle-Fille is the youngest vineyard on the winery’s Knights Valley estate, as well as the highest, reaching an elevation of 1,900 feet, and is quickly becoming the winery’s best source for Chardonnay. It’s a cool location but situated above the summer fog line, allowing for excellent sun exposure. Winemaker Nick Morlet uses native yeast; the wine is 100 percent barrel-fermented in French oak.

Revana - Cabernet Sauvignon St. Helena 2007

97 points / $125
2,000 cases made, California

Houston cardiologist Madaiah Revana grew up in rural India, immigrated to America and caught the wine bug. In 1998, he planted 9 acres of grapes north of St. Helena, across Highway 29 from Grace Family. This 2007 is Revana’s best effort to date. Winemaker Heidi Peterson Barrett ferments small lots and ages them separately for 20 months in French oak (40 percent new) before making the final blend of 92 percent Cabernet Sauvignon, with Petit Verdot and Cabernet Franc.

Altamura - Cabernet Sauvignon Napa Valley 2007

96 points / $85
3,000 cases made, California

Altamura comes from one of the least-known corners of Napa, a small, remote area called Wooden Valley. Northeast of the city of Napa, this area is distinguished by a dramatic fog bank and cooler climate, and subsequently a longer growing season; temperatures here can be as many as 10 degrees lower than the Napa Valley average. Frank and Karen Altamura started planting grapes on their 400-acre family ranch in 1985. They also make Sangiovese and Sauvignon Blanc.

Paul Hobbs - Pinot Noir Russian River Valley 2008

94 points / $45
3,644 cases made, California

Paul Hobbs made this exceptional Pinot Noir in a tricky year and made it in considerable volume, a challenge to most vintners. Hobbs founded his own label in 1991, but also consults for dozens of clients in California, Argentina, Chile and Hungary. This bottling is one of six different 2008 California Pinot Noirs from Hobbs; the grapes for this one come from six vineyards in Russian River Valley, including the Lindsey Estate, Valdez and Walker Station.

Schild - Shiraz Barossa 2008

94 points / $20
5,000 cases imported, Australia

Schild’s entry-level Shiraz has all of the stuffing of a blue-chip bottling, but sells for a fraction of the price of other brands. The winery is able to achieve this because it’s one of the largest independent growers in the Barossa, with more than 400 acres under vine. Winemakers Jo Irvine and Scott Hazeldine used grapes from the cooler southern Barossa to produce this polished and complex red that was aged in both new and used American oak.

Fontodi - Colli della Toscana, Centrale Flaccianello 2007

95 points / $110
5,000 cases made, Italy

The area around Fontodi’s property in Panzano is known as the Conca d’Oro, or Golden Shell, for its heat-trapping amphitheater shape, excellent for ripening grapes. Flaccianello, 100 percent Sangiovese, is a selection of the estate’s best grapes. The 2007 was fermented in stainless steel, transferred to oak barrels for malolactic fermentation and aged in new French oak for 18 months. This is the third Top 10 appearance for Flaccianello and owner Giovanni Manetti this decade.

CARM - Douro Reserva 2007

94 points / $27
8,500 cases made, Portugal

CARM stands for Casa Agrícola Roboredo Madeira. The Madeira family has owned vineyards in the Douro Valley since the 1600s, but until a decade ago, they were more focused on olive trees than their 150 acres of vines. Energetic Rui Roboredo Madeira has been the winemaker since 1999, farming seven vineyards at the extremely dry upper end of the Douro. The reserva is a blend of mostly Touriga Nacional, with some Touriga Franca and Tinta Roriz, aged in French and American oak.

Clos des Papes - Châteauneuf-du-Pape White 2009

95 points / $100
1,000 cases made, France

Clos des Papes is widely recognized for its red cuvée (its 2005 earned Wine of the Year in 2007), but this estate also produces one of the appellation’s best whites. From the Southern Rhône’s excellent 2009 vintage, this wine blends equal parts Grenache Blanc, Clairette, Roussanne, Picpoul and Bourboulenc. To retain freshness, Vincent Avril fermented the wine in stainless steel tanks and avoided malolactic conversion. This white will benefit from a few years in the cellar.

The Top 100 at a Glance

In the current silver market, there are some similarities as compared with the 1970s. There are also things that are much different today, in the economic landscape, compared with that of the 1970s. One of the significant things that is different now is the fact that debt levels, relative to GDP, are extremely high compared with the seventies.

In my opinion, this is one of the main reasons why we are likely to have a massive Depression this time around and sterling silver flatware and tableware products is very practical and sensible way to protect your families wealth (purchasing power). And, antique French sterling silver products stamped with the French Governments Minerva-1 hallmark are a minimum 95% pure silver. Is it any wonder that their prices escalate as the price of silver escalates. They make treasured family heirlooms, to be enjoyed by the entire family for generations.

I would like to illustrate how the silver price behaves in a similar manner, today, compared with the 1970s. Below is a graphic that compares the silver price chart of January 1978—August 1979 to the period from January 2009—present (charts generated at barchart.com): 

I chose these timeframes because the price broke out of the significant high (for the relevant decade) around these periods.  I have drawn a blue line at the level of the relevant significant high.

Note how the run-up to the blue line is visually similar in both cases. After going through the blue line, the price rallied significantly until it peaked at point b (in both cases). It then corrected/consolidated forming a flag/pennant type formation.

Note that in the 70s and in the current chart, the price corrected to just above the blue line. It does not mean it cannot still move to the blue line, since, to stay valid, it just needs to stay at or above the blue line. Note also that, currently, I do not see any evidence that we will still go lower than the $26 level.

The comparison suggests that we should now rally towards point d and eventually go higher than point b ($50). Imagine what will happen to the price of sterling silver flatware and table ware products when that happens.  Buying those products today gets you in near the bottom and puts you in an excellent position to enjoy the benefits of a tremendous uptrend which will follow.

The flag pattern formed currently is significantly bigger (in price movement terms) relative to that of the 1970s. This is possibly indicating that this fractal pattern is growing significantly, which could mean, going forward, bigger price increases relative to the price increases of the 1970s.

The move from point a to point b, on the bottom chart, was remarkable. It took silver from about $17.50 to about $50, a 185% increase. Compare that to the 1970s move of 33.33% (from about $6 to $8). To me, this signals that silver has changed gears (big-time) relative to the 1970s.

Below is a graphic that compares the silver chart (from 2007 to today), to the gold chart (from 2008 to 2010) (all charts generated at fxstreet.com):

The top chart is for gold and the bottom is for silver. I have highlighted how similar patterns exist on both charts. On both charts are ascending triangles, out of which the price broke out to the upside. After the breakout, price increased significantly from where both formed a consolidation pattern.

The ascending triangle for silver (roughly 30 months) is much bigger than that of gold (roughly 19 months). The consolidation patterns for both charts took roughly the same amount of time to form, relative to their ascending triangles (about half the time of the triangles).

Based on this comparison, it would seem that silver was at point on 29 December 2011, and it is now busy making its way toward the blue line and will eventually pass the $50 level, just like the comparison to the 70s chart suggest.

Also, if you compare the price movement for silver after it broke out of the triangle to that of gold’s movement, you will notice that there is a huge difference. Gold moved from about $1000 to $1227 (a 22.7% increase), whereas silver moved from about $21 to about $50 (a 138% increase). This, to me, says that there is a massive amount of energy underlying the silver market, and when it is ready to unleash, we will see price/value increases that will stun even the most ardent silverbugs.

The kind of movement we’ve seen since silver has moved out of the triangle is normally associated with moves at the end of a big move. So, either that move was the end of silver’s big move, or it was just an unusually big beginning of a really big move, which suggests we will have an unusually big end of a big move (still to come). Again, I see no evidence to suggest that anything we’ve seen so far was the end of the silver bull market, so I am expecting the latter (i.e. a very powerful upleg yet to unfold). If you have been contemplating the purchase of some sterling silver items, there has never been a better time to complete that purchase.  Prices are near the current low with a long, strong uptrend in prices to follow. Check our website for our current sterling silver offerings – high quality, low prices  (http://estate-sterling.com).

Warm regards and God bless………..Doc

1. Knives and Forks

This is one of the most common problems for people that are used to flatware (knives and forks) being brought to the table with each course. On a properly set table you usually see a series of forks on the left side of your plate, and a series of spoons and knives on your right (the table is always set for right handed people). The very simple rule is to always work from the outside in; the cutlery farthest away from your plate is for the first course. If you are still unsure what to do, wait and follow your hostess or host.

Always take small portions of food at a time and put your cutlery down between each mouthful. When you put your cutlery down, place it on the plate (never back on the table and do not rest it half on and half off the plate); cross the tips of the two pieces (if there are two) or angle it if there is just one. This tells the server that you are not finished. When you are finished, place your knife and fork together in the centre of the plate vertically. The tines of the fork should point up and the blade of the knife should point to the centre towards the fork.

You should always hold both your knife and fork – you should not cut your food up at the start and then use your fork only (this is an American tradition and is generally fine in America, but not in Europe). The tines of your fork should always point down toward the plate – for difficult foods like peas, you should use your knife to squash them onto the tip of the fork. The fork is not a scoop, do not use it like one.

Do not pick up any cutlery that you drop to the floor. It will be replaced by the server.

2. Soup and Pudding

Soup spoons generally come in two shapes – one is shaped like a round bowl, and the other is shaped like an egg. When eating soup the soup bowl must stay on the table. It is never acceptable to drink your soup from the bowl. To eat your soup, push your spoon away from you starting at the centre of the bowl to the farthest edge. Bring the spoon to your mouth and drink the soup from the edge – do not put the whole spoon in to your mouth. Do not slurp.

Pudding is not to be confused with dessert – they are two entirely separate courses though one can take the place of the other. Pudding is a sweet course, whereas dessert is usually fruit or cheese. To eat pudding you are usually given both a fork and a spoon. The pudding spoon is held in the same way as your knife, with the bowl of the spoon facing inwards, and (for right handed people) is held in the right hand. The pudding fork is used as a pusher only. You do not put a pudding fork in to your mouth. Using the fork, push a small portion of your pudding on to the angled spoon. As you lift the spoon to your mouth, tilt it a little so the bowl is now facing upwards. When you have finished eating, the same rules apply here for placing your cutlery back on the plate.

Occasionally the pudding fork and spoon will be found directly above your plate, rather than in the cutlery at the side.

3. Napkins

A napkin is used for one thing only – dabbing the mouth. Never wipe your mouth with a napkin, you should always dab. Your napkin should be unfolded and placed on your knees. It is never acceptable to tuck your napkin in to the front of your shirt or dress. In ancient times this was normal, nowadays it is the height of vulgarity.

If, for some urgent reason, you must leave the table before you have finished, you should place your napkin on your seat (after you have asked your hostess to excuse you). This tells the server that you plan to return. When you are ready to sit down again, simply replace the napkin upon your knee.

If your napkin drops to the floor, it is acceptable for you to pick it up unless the house has a butler or servants near the table. In those cases they will remove the fallen napkin and replace it with a fresh one. Never place anything in your napkin (especially not food).

When you have finished eating, the napkin should be placed tidily (but not refolded) to the left side of your plate (but not on your plate).

4. Glasses and Wine

Normally you will have two or more glasses at the table. Your glasses are on the right upper side of your plate. You can have up to four glasses. They are usually arranged in a diagonal or roughly square pattern. The top left glass is for red wine. It will usually have a fairly large bowl. Directly below that you will find the white wine glass, that will be smaller. At the top right you will find a champagne glass or perhaps a smaller glass for dessert wines or port. on the bottom right is your water glass.

If someone offers a toast to you, you remain seated while the others may stand. Never raise a glass to yourself. You should never touch glasses with other guests when toasting – it is enough to raise the glass in their direction. Keep eye contact when toasting. If you wish to raise a toast, never tap the side of your glass with a utensil, it is the height of rudeness and you could damage very expensive glassware. It is sufficient to clear your throat.

Do not gulp your wine. It is impolite to become drunk in front of the other guests or your hosts. Sip quietly and occasionally. The purpose of the wine at dinner is to complement your food, not to help you along to way to drunkenness. If your server is refilling your glass, you should never place your hand over or near the glass to indicate when you have enough. You should simply tell the server that you have sufficient or tell him prior to pouring that you do not wish to have any more. Never hold the glass for the server to pour your wine.

5. Body and seating

There will usually be a seating plan near the door of the dining room, or place cards on the table. If neither exist, wait to be seated by your hostess. There are strict rules as to whom sits where at the table and it would be extremely embarrassing if you had to be asked to move, both for you and your hostess. Remember, the hostess governs the table, not the host. The host will sit at the head of the table (this is normally the seat farthest away from doors or commotion. To his right sits the wife of the guest of honour and to his left sits the wife of the next gentleman in order of importance. The hostess will have the guest of honour on her right, and the second most important gentleman on her left. The remainder of the seating plan can often be arbitrary but will always alternate based on gender.

When you are seated at the table your feet should be firmly planted on the floor in front of you. Do not cross your legs, do not lean back on your chair, and do not shake your feet. Your elbows should be at your side at all times. Sit upright and do not lean over your plate when you are eating; bring your food to your mouth.

In England, the correct behaviour is to keep your hands on your lap when you are not using them. In France the rule is to keep your hands above the table at all times. You may place them on the edge of the table but you must never put your elbows on the table.

6. Food in General

You must not start eating until everyone has been served. If there are a large number of guests, the hostess may indicate that you may begin before everyone is served. If this is the case, you should begin. If you take a mouthful which contains something you cannot swallow, you should excuse yourself and remove it in privacy. Absolutely do not do so at the table table and never place it in your napkin or on your plate for all to see.

If you are eating something that has stones or pips in it, you may use your forefinger and thumb to remove them from your mouth. Place them on the side of your plate. You must never use a toothpick at the table, nor should you blow your nose. If you have something stuck in your teeth that you must remove, excuse yourself and go to the bathroom to remove it. It is also acceptable to remove bones with your fingers.

Do not salt your meal before you have tasted it; it is an insult to your hostess. If you do need salt, use the tip of a clean knife (if a salt spoon is not provided in the salt dish) to transfer some salt to the side of your plate which you can use for dipping.

Small pre-dinner snacks must always touch your plate before being put in the mouth. Do not take it from the serving tray and put it straight in your mouth.

7. Bread

If you are having bread with your meal there will usually be a small side plate on the left hand side (or above your left left hand cutlery) of your place setting; if so, use it. If not, it is perfectly acceptable to place your bread directly on the table to the left of your plate. You should not put the bread on your plate directly.

Bread should never be cut. When you wish to eat it, tear a bite sized piece off with your fingers. Don’t worry about crumbs if there are no side plates – the servers will sweep each setting between courses if needs be. Normally there should never be butter served at a dinner table, but these days it is seen from time to time. If there is butter, use your butter knife (found either on the bread plate or to the extreme right of your setting) and transfer sufficient butter for your bread in one go. Place it on the side of your side plate. If there is no side plate your hostess should ensure that you have your own individual butter dish. You should butter each piece of bread as you eat it, rather than buttering it all up front.

8. Conversation

Unless you know every guest at the table very well, you should not discuss politics, religion, or sex at the table. You should also avoid any controversial subjects that may fall outside of the scope of those three topics. Dinner is meant to be enjoyed, not to be a forum for debate.

You should give equal time to the person sitting on your left and your right. It can be difficult to talk easily with strangers but it is absolutely imperative that you do so that everyone can join in on the conversation. This is such a strict rule that I know of a lady of high standing who was seated next to her greatest enemy. In order to comply with the rule, she simply recited the alphabet to him the whole time. Having said that, I would not recommend this behaviour at all as it implies another kind of rudeness.

Do not yell to the ends of the table. You should speak in low tones but you do not have to act like you are in Church or a Public Library – dinner is meant to be enjoyed and the conversation is a fundamental part of that. If you are not very confident with speaking to others, a good rule of thumb is to ask the person questions about themselves (never personal questions). Everyone loves to speak about himself and this will also make you appear to be a good listener.